So who do they belong to? Are they Russian, Chinese, American, or extraterrestrial?

I think we already know enough to arrive at a preliminary answer to this important question - subject to additional data, of course. We like to keep our articles brief, but on this occasion it’s important that we go through everything step by step - so this piece will be a bit longer than usual.

Are they all just a matter of misidentification?

First, there’s always the basic option that all UAP/UFO sightings are just honest misidentifications of normal things - aircraft, balloons, drones, Venus, atmospheric phenomena, meteors and re-entering space debris, etc. Plus there are a few hoaxes and reports from other dubious witnesses, where nothing was actually seen.

Usually, this misidentification category provides a solid explanation for the vast majority of sightings of unidentified flying objects - not least because witness testimony is notoriously unreliable. However, when the UAP Task Force released its preliminary assessment, only one single case out of 144 reported by military personnel was cleared up in this manner - a deflating balloon was deemed the likely explanation - leaving almost all as unknowns. More generally, down the decades, there have always been a few cases where a conventional explanation seemed extremely unlikely or unimaginable - leaving the obvious question “So what was it…?” We began this UAP section of Evolve First by reporting the 2004 USS Nimitz Tic Tac incident, aptly titled Too real to ignore - an example where standard answers don’t seem to fit.

How many instances remain unreported and unknown?

When I was first in Ethiopia during the 1984/1985 famine, I got to know one of the British Royal Air Force C-130 Hercules pilots who were diligently transporting essential food aid to different parts of the country. He was an extremely experienced pilot, one of just two at the time trusted to fly a Hercules during a public air show. One day, he confided in me that he had once seen a strange metallic-looking flying object - a UFO - whilst airborne himself on RAF duty. It was totally unlike anything he’d ever seen before or since, and he was sure it was being intelligently controlled. He reported the encounter to his Wing Commander and was subsequently interviewed by two officials - who “annoyingly” refused to answer any of his questions, whilst expecting theirs were fully addressed.

When we worked in Australia with the conservation of endangered wallabies during the early/mid 1990s, Singapore Airlines kindly helped us with flights. I never sleep onboard a flight, even when it’s long haul, so during the night - and this was prior to 9/11, after which cockpit security was significantly changed - I would often spend an hour or two talking with the pilots flying the aircraft I was on. I soon got to hear about the most senior Singapore Airlines pilot at the time, with 30+ years flying experience, who had had a close encounter with a UFO during one flight. He was highly respected by all the pilots I talked with and they unhesitatingly accepted his word for what he saw. I never met the individual myself, but he was above reproach. And, thereafter, he always carried a camera with him whilst flying.

We worked in a remote part of Sudan for 25 years, running a medical clinic and other humanitarian projects. I was told of an instance when a strange craft landed next to a village, not far from Sennar. Several unusual beings were briefly seen before the craft took off. The local people all lived in simple thatched mud huts or houses, with no electricity or other modern amenities. They’d been perturbed by what had happened. This was many years ago, and the chance of cultural influence from hearing stories of UFOs was slim compared to elsewhere in the world.

I’ve briefly mentioned the three cases above - which have never been told in print or online before now (to the best of my knowledge) - to indicate that many UAP/UFO sightings undoubtedly go unreported, therefore effectively remaining unknown to the general public.

A benchmark of capability

The US Navy’s encounter with the Tic Tac UAP has given us a couple of reliable data points. In addition to the witness testimony of four pilots who had “eyes on” for five minutes, we also have the fact of the encounter being monitored aboard the USS Princeton using its sophisticated AN/SPY-1 radar - capable of detecting a golf ball sized object from in excess of 100 miles away. Kevin Day, the Senior Chief, followed what was happening as Commander David Fravor engaged the unknown craft. It first descended from 28,000 ft to the surface of the ocean in 0.78 seconds - then it travelled to the CAP (combat air patrol) rendezvous point some 60 miles away in just 5 seconds.

So we can all easily do the maths. That’s speeds of 24,475 mph and 43,200 mph.

Let’s put those numbers in some kind of context. The top speed of an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft - as flown by David Fravor and Alex Dietrich - is 1,190 mph. The MiG-25 Foxbat is a Russian supersonic interceptor and reconnaissance aircraft that can reach speeds of 2,190 mph. The NASA/USAF X-15 experimental aircraft - which was more like a rocket with wings - achieved a record speed of 4,520 mph.

Let’s be a tad unfair and look at SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket. The second stage gets to almost 18,000 mph - which is fast enough to circle the Earth in just 90 minutes.

And we’re still well short of the Tic Tac’s speed.

UAP don’t resemble our aerial technology

Regardless of who has made these unknown craft, or where they originate from, at least some display characteristics that set them apart from conventional aircraft and such like. They can overcome Earth’s gravity with no visible means of propulsion - which, in itself, is odd. And there are no flight control surfaces, such as wings or propellers.

The speed is often described as “impossible” - but it’s more than that. These incredible velocities are seemingly achieved near-instantaneously, a rate of acceleration that’s way beyond what we know how to achieve. Furthermore, UAP are able to change direction incredibly quickly and at angles that no human pilot would be able to survive. Hypersonic velocities are achieved without the usual signatures of sonic booms.

Even harder to explain

Some UAP - both over many decades and within the recent US Navy encounters - appear to be capable of effortlessly entering the seas. There are limited reports of Unidentified Submersible Objects (USOs) travelling at fast speeds underwater, twice what a US submarine can achieve and even quicker than a torpedo. Given the possibility that UAP are moving through space, air, and water at will, the term trans-medium objects is becoming commonly used by those investigating and interested in the subject. Technologically, assuming the reports are verified, these phenomena get even harder to explain by the idea it’s human-built advanced craft.

Up, down, up, down

The USS Princeton had been monitoring groups of 5-10 unknown craft for several days before the Super Hornets were sent to investigate. They’d been seen on radar to rapidly descend from 80,000 ft (or above) to 20,000 ft, stay motionless there for three or four hours, then zoom back up at a phenomenal speed. There is no known human-made aircraft that can do such a thing.

We can send rockets and missiles to such a height (and higher). The SR-71 Blackbird - a US spy plane - could reach an altitude of 85,000 ft.

But, in the case of multiple UAP tracked by the USS Princeton, the craft were firstly able to get up there, then rapidly descend, remain stationary for several hours, before ascending straight back up. And then what? This indirect route from and back to a home base would seem puzzling if the craft were from Russia or China. The amount of energy required to ascend and descend, twice - not including staying aloft for three to four hours in between - would be staggering, based on any known propulsion system. (I’ve excluded the US as an option here, as we’ve been assured that unacknowledged experimental aircraft would not nowadays be permitted into a military training zone simply because it would endanger aircrew.)

Is it the Russians?

During the Cold War era, the Soviet Union amassed a huge arsenal of weaponry. A lot of the nuclear warheads were decommissioned as a result of talks between Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, brokered by our own Margaret Thatcher. At that time, the two world superpowers were the United States of America and the Soviet Union. But when the latter broke up and we learned more of what was behind the Iron Curtain, the Russians had never been that technologically advanced. Yes, they were the first to put a man into space - Yuri Gagarin - having already launched Sputnik in 1957, but they were never close to landing a man or men on the moon.

In recent years, after the drunken embarrassment of Boris Yeltsin, who followed after Gorbachev, Vladimir Putin restored the “hard man” image of the Soviet Union’s centralised approach. Russia remains a major power in the development of missiles of all kinds, including hypersonic ones. They can’t be ignored - and it’s not impossible that some of the UAP sightings might have been Russian drones. But it’s way beyond the stretch of imagination to think the Tic Tac 40 ft craft - capable of speeds of 24,450 mph and 43,200 mph, with near-instant acceleration - might have originated from the Russian equivalent of Area 51. And, if true, Putin would surely have posed in his usual bare-chested fashion in front of such an advanced feat of technology for his latest annual calendar.

Is it the Chinese?

We use a DJI drone for filming from above. The technology is great. And it’s “made in China” - along with many of the things we all buy nowadays. China also manufactures impressive military-grade drones for both reconnaissance and combat, some capable of flying extremely high. Their overall military capability is impressive. Stealth technology is being incorporated, first seen in the US with the F-117 Nighthawk stealth attack aircraft and the B-2 Spirit (or Stealth Bomber). China has become the new superpower. They are known for having the ability to “acquire” technological know-how from anywhere to enhance their own manufacturing capability. You’d be a fool to underestimate them.

Electronic warfare is developing in many ways, including disrupting enemy communications. Spoofing and otherwise distracting enemy sensors are clear tactics, aside from the more obvious one of jamming. Then there’s the physical use of swarming drones to help disorientate. New military developments always have to be considered.

China operates on the military-civil fusion principle. This is an effective means of reducing the barriers between the private sector and the defence industrial base, bolstering the innovation system for dual-use technologies through integrated development.

China is also fast becoming a major player in space exploration.

All of the above said, it’s hard to see that any significant leap forward in technology has happened in China. It would have to be unprecedented. The indications are otherwise; strong progress, but nothing spectacularly different. US Senator Mitt Romney has said: “I don’t believe they’re coming from foreign adversaries. If they were, why that would suggest they have a technology which is at a whole different sphere than anything we understand. And, frankly, China and Russia just aren’t there. And neither are we, by the way.” So, again, if we’re to believe that the Tic Tac craft was made in China, then we might as well start believing that Mickey Mouse is real - together with Santa Claus.

Are they US Black Projects from Area 51?

The aforementioned F-117 Nighthawk and B-2 Spirit were once Black Project highly classified aircraft - their existence publicly denied until they were formally announced. Black Projects are also known as Special Access Programs. Secrecy is maintained through strict “need to know” compartmentalisation of knowledge and access. Area 51 in Nevada is a known base for development, albeit denied for decades until recently.

Black Projects are funded and overseen by a very limited number of politicians and senior officials. These same people have been fully briefed on what has so far become known by the UAP Task Force (now about to be superseded with a more permanent office for UAP investigation). US Senator Marco Rubio has clearly stated - referring to UAP - “It isn’t ours”.

In the past, a number of reported UFO sightings have definitely been of Black Project aircraft. The triangular shape of the B-2 Spirit looked different to what we were used to seeing in the skies, for example - and there have been other prototypes which have never made it into production and so never publicly acknowledged. But we’ve been absolutely assured that this isn’t the explanation for the Tic Tac and other unknowns of recent years. Too many senior officials in positions of oversight are clear that they remain intrigued by these mysterious craft or objects, unsure of their origin.

Is it originally extraterrestrial technology, but now built by us in Area 51?

This explanation opens up a can of worms that plunges us into the murky world of conspiracy theories and gullibility. Ufology has been awash with rumours and tales of crashed flying saucers, agreements between the US government and grey aliens, and worse. Is it beyond the realms of possibility that there might be recovered extraterrestrial technology somewhere secret? Perhaps not. But if this was the case, it would be the most secretive Special Access Program ever - with almost everyone who should know being kept in the dark, with near-zero oversight, for a very long time - probably managed by the involvement of a tiny industrial offshoot a thousand times more tightly controlled and hidden away than Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works.

The chances of being able to properly understand some off-world advanced technology would be minimal or close to zero, not least because hardly anyone would be employed to work it all out. The likelihood of being able to replicate a recovered craft would be even lower. The idea this would then be flown about, willy-nilly, over towns and cities, within a military training exercise zone - with all of the risks of premature exposure and even major/fatal accident - is laughable in the extreme. Anyone in authority wouldn’t get anywhere near exposing themselves or the super-secret project for no good reason. Anyway, if extraterrestrial technology had been replicated, this would involve far more people - significantly increasing the chances of whistle-blowers speaking out. Serious money would be needed for manufacture, necessitating this hypothetical Blacker-Than-Black Project to be downgraded to a more normal Black Project. And if this were so, there would be congressional oversight at that late stage. As those who are genuinely in the know have said “It isn’t ours”, this theoretically possible explanation must be a non-starter.

If they’re Russian, Chinese, or American, what about history?

Sightings of UAP are nothing new. Leaving aside possible accounts from even further back in history, Allied fighter pilots formally started to report “foo fighters” from November 1944, during the latter part of World War II. These UAP were presumed to be secret weapons employed by the enemy. Fast-moving glowing objects showed an interest in the military aircraft. Pilots described them as Christmas tree lights and that they were toying with them, making wild turns before suddenly vanishing. These UAP flew together in formation and appeared to be under intelligent control. They couldn’t be outmanoeuvred or shot down. After the war, it was learnt that German and Japanese pilots also reported UAP, likewise assuming it was “enemy” secret weapons.

The first significant post-war report was filed by private pilot Kenneth Arnold who, on 24th June 1947, saw nine shiny objects flying past Mount Rainier in Washington State - giving birth to the term “flying saucers”. A huge number of unidentified flying objects have been reported in the decades since. Whereas the majority could be dismissed, as stated at the beginning of this article, some remain genuinely puzzling.

Anyway, taking this significant length of time into consideration - over three-quarters of a century - it gets even harder to think of UAP as technology developed by Russia, China, or the US. As time passes, those who write on aviation see progressive trends in development over the years, and there’s nothing that gets close to explaining some cases such as the Tic Tac - and that’s now, let alone many decades ago.

Is this the simplest explanation - that we’re being visited from elsewhere?

If all of the above fail to explain the most credible UAP cases, then we need to start thinking outside of the proverbial box - to at least consider that the origin of these unknown craft or probes might be beyond our planet.

Before going further, I’m briefly going to mention two other possibilities that have been frequently suggested. It’s us, from the future. Or it’s something from another dimension. Both of these potential answers should be seen as being wildly speculative. Time travel is pure science fiction - unlike worm holes and warp drive, which are being taken seriously by an increasing number of scientists, even if we’re still at square one. And whereas mainstream physicists do talk about the multiverse, there’s zero evidence for that as yet. So please forgive me if I quickly move on to more solid foundations - staying within the known universe and present time-frame.

We now know for a fact that there are a huge number of exoplanets. And it’s reasonable to assume that life will exist on at least some of these far-away worlds, including advanced technological civilisations - that we’re not “special”, the only life anywhere. In a bigger galactic picture, it’s more than likely we’re just a semi-primitive, emerging intelligent species - still with a long way to go along the evolutionary and technological paths.

Arrogance and intellectualisation do clever people no favours, threatening to expose them as brainy but blinkered fools - and breakthrough ideas rarely come from those deeply entrenched within the elite or Establishment. Whereas a lot of mainstream scientists will insist that the distances between star systems are too vast - and that faster-than-light travel is “impossible” - others are questioning this conventional thinking, attempting to extend the existing boundaries of our knowledge to find a way. It’s still early days, but don’t bet the shirt off your back that the means for fast interstellar travel won’t be discovered, because the “impossible” has a knack of later becoming very possible.

I’ve answered the Fermi paradox elsewhere on this website. This apparent enigma, once understood, boils down to a straightforward matter of psychology - ours and theirs - but hardly anyone thinks in this wider context. At least, not yet. And it doesn’t just answer Fermi’s question of “Where are they?”; it goes further by identifying the motivation or “Why?” for them taking an interest in us. I’ve given a name to this: The Event. Again, you can read more here. So there’s a big reason for advanced extraterrestrial civilisations to take an interest in us - which doesn’t exclude any lesser factors, such as indications they’ve taken note of our nuclear weapons.

What next?

Two major developments have at last started to take form. As we have reported here and here, Avi Loeb of Harvard University - together with an increasing number of fellow scientists, supported by research affiliates - have initiated the Galileo Project. The aim is simple: to acquire clear photographic evidence that will show beyond doubt whether UAP are made here on our planet or not. Secondly, the US Congress has recently passed legislation for a permanent office to investigate UAP. We also know that China is investigating what they call unidentified aerial conditions (UAC), although that news is limited. So this has now gone beyond being a laughing matter. UAP as a subject is being taken seriously.

There has been tantalising evidence for many years, but nothing that could be called conclusive. The COMETA Report was authored by thirteen retired generals, scientists, and space experts working independently of the French government. They looked at several compelling cases and were able to eliminate all conventional explanations, concluding that UFOs were real, solid, and deserving of immediate international attention. That’s now beginning to happen in the US.

Evidence gathering and analysis aside, this will all ultimately boil down to the need for humanity to grow up. We’re an emerging intelligent species, still at the semi-primitive stage. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand why any visitors would keep their distance. Our ability to advance technologically is happening - but we’re still stuck in a psychological bubble of me-first, with all the resulting dysfunction. Yet The Event is beginning to happen, tentatively.

Written by Iain Scott, 27th January 2022

UPDATE (November 2022): A good next step will be to watch our mini-series of three films on UFOs or UAP. We answer these crucial questions: How do advanced extraterrestrials think? Are they friendly or hostile? What do they want? What are they doing here? We also look at the best UFO cases and what they suggest is going on.